PMQs

The main focus of today's session was of course, defence, given the PM's recent testistomy at the Chilcot Inquiry. Cameron kicked off with, "Yesterday we had the inquest of four soldiers killed in Afghanistan in 2008. At the time the defence minister, the member for Grantham and Stamford [Quentin Davies] linked their deaths to the commander's choice of vehicle." The PM repeated that Mr Davies had apologised for the remarks. Cameron continued his line of attack in claiming former service personnel have criticised the PM's perfomance at Chilcott.

Inevitably the PM rebuked Cameron's calls for integrity with jibes about Lord Ashcroft's role in the Conservative party. A confident and relaxed PM, even cracked a joke, when Cameron claimed the Tories won the Cold War, claiming that Cameron was "still at school at the time".

Clegg focused on prison policy, specifically re-offending rates, he said Labour had allowed prisons to become "colleges of crime", which are now costing the taxpayer £10bn each year.

Overall, Cameron's angry performance failed to land significant blows on the notably composed PM, perhaps the new confidence is a reflection of today's YouGov poll which showed a reduced 4 point lead for the Tories.

In other news, the budget was finally confirmed today and as expected will take place on 24th March which should once and for all silence speculation of an early general election.

Forces of hell unleashed at PMQs

It’s been an interesting week for the PM, with Andrew Rawnsley’s much hyped book serialisation providing snippets of life in No.10 based on "24 carat" sources; the furore that has followed has been rather surprising. 

Helped by the PR disaster that is Christine Pratt who went on a media blitz earlier this week in a clear attempt to promote her now ailing charity, by claiming there has been complaints about bullying from inside No.10 (Helpfully, Taiwanese media have made a CGI reconstruction, which is fast becoming a viral hit).

Fast forward through the media frenzy and we arrive at today, with the election getting closer by the minute, what effect has the bully allegations had on the PM. In short the impact has been minimal, Labour have continued to narrow the Tory lead with today’s Sun/You Gov suggesting the Tories have a mere six point lead. Hung parliament anyone?

Alastair Darling’s revelation that he had the ‘forces of hell’ directed at him by No.10, in the now infamous disagreement he had with the PM over his recession predictions – which turned out to be accurate – provided Cameron with plenty of ammunition for today’s PMQs. 

Leading with the failings in Stafford Hospital, it did not take long for Cameron to claim that openness was not only needed in the NHS but also at the heart of government. His remaining questions concentrated on the briefing against the Chancellor. A notably calm Brown denied and praised Alastair Darling.

Clegg did quite well today recognising that the ‘new’ Labour  election slogan is actually a recycled one, "Last time PM wheeled out Future Fair For All was in 2003. The gap in tax between rich and poor has doubled - hardly fair." He continued, “A Future Fair For All, is not a slogan it’s a warning”

One of more humorous moments of the session came from Mr Speaker, "If the House does not quiet down I will have to ring a helpline myself". Overall, a fiery session which the PM seemed to handle well and eventually win.

A week is a long time in the polls

Labour’s recent gain in the polls, with the previous five polls showing the gap between Labour and the Tories fluctuating between 7 and 9 points, illustrates just how tight the next general will be and is leading some commentators to the conclusion that there will be a hung parliament at the next general election.

Despite this, Cameron regained his confidence at PMQs this week, after a difficult month of policy wobbles, by panning Brown’s attempt to reform the electoral system, claiming that he had thirteen years to do so – he had a point. In what is being seen as a brazen attempt to court the Lib Dems and nurture the idea of a coalition ahead of the General Election, MPs will vote on AV replacing the first past the post system next week. With many Labour MPs already voicing disapproval, all eyes will be on the must win vote for Brown.

The PM has said he is very angry after it was announced that four MPs will face criminal charges (under section 17 of the Theft Act 1968 for false accounting) over their expenses claims; a further case is still under investigation. Elliot Chaytor, Jim Devine, David Chaytor and Lord Hanningfield are the accused, the three MPs released a joint statement this morning utterly refuting the charges brought against them. This is undoubtedly an embarrassment for Labour and it will be interesting to see how damaging this will be on their polling.

On the positive side, the historic breakthrough in Northern Ireland, may provide a boost for Labour. On top of that, rumours of Tony Blair hitting the campaign trail for Labour are actually true, in an interview with the Evening Standard, the PM said, “I think you will find Tony Blair has a role. I think you will find that many people in Labour who are no longer in Government but who have been part of the ‘project’ for years will have a role. Tony will have to explain, when he wishes, what he can do.” Also on the horizon for the PM is the broadcast of an one hour interview with Piers Morgan, this cosy interview should help maintain if not improve the recent gains.

PMQs

No timely interruptions to steal the media limelight this week, thankfully for the PM.

The session kicked off with a change of strategy for Cameron, taking his questions in two segments rather than usual six question spurt. It worked slightly better, landing some blows on the PM mainly in regards to last week’s coup attempt. In a classic piece of middle England electioneering, Cameron claimed that lessons needed to be learnt from the how the adverse weather has been handled, specifically grit shortages. 

However, the PM was on buoyant form and used all his replies to taunt Cameron over his airbrushed campaign poster and bemoaned Cameron’s lack of policy, "He can have his posters we will have the policies" the PM quipped.

Nick Clegg led with Iraq and called for the PM to do the "decent thing" and volunteer to appear before the Iraq inquiry before a general election, the PM rebuffed with ease by stating the Inquiry would make such decisions. 

Overall, not a bad session for the PM, who seemed determined to prove his doubters wrong. Cameron’s sound bites on the economy and “call an election now” are starting to become tiresome and perhaps a new line of attack would prove more effective.

The Return of the Blairites....

Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt today launched another highly damaging coup attempt on Gordon Brown, a letter released shortly after PMQs today, reads: 

"As we move towards a General Election it remains the case that the Parliamentary Labour Party is deeply divided over the question of the leadership. Many colleagues have expressed their frustration at the way in which this question is affecting our political performance. We have therefore come to the conclusion that the only way to resolve this issue would be to allow every member to express their view in a secret ballot."

The coup has thus far attracted the support of the usual suspects; Charles Clarke, Frank Field, Barry Sheerman etc. Crucially, there seems to be no cabinet support and this challenge like the previous two looks set to collapse. To the despair of No.10 this will overshadow Brown's strong performance in PMQs today and will fuel Tory calls for an early election.

Has the General Election already been won?

With the general election expected within the next six months (most likely on May 6th), both parties were keen to steal the New Year limelight. The Tories were first to break out of political hibernation. Launching their draft health manifesto and their leader in a Presidential style, see poster below.

As has now been well reported, Labour responded with a dossier on Tory spending plans, in which they claimed to expose a £34 billion black hole. The battle has clearly begun. It looks like Labour has secured their first mini blow of this election saga, with the Tories appearing to back down on their marriage tax break proposal. 

However, is all this campaigning actually going to make a difference to the election result, I think not. There will be a Conservative Government running the country before mid-June, say most opinion polls and many political commentators. This suggests voters have already decided who they are going to vote for and thus the months of campaigning ahead will simply act as background noise.

That said, there are two important caveats to add: Firstly, whilst a Tory government is looking likely, anything is possible, as the overused Macmillan quote “events, dear boy event” reminds us. Secondly, Cameron still has some way to go in conveying what he and his party stand for, to attract floating voters, given the size of the swing required for a workable majority. For a majority of one the Tories must gain 117 seats, a swing not seen since 1931.

Final PMQs of the decade

The final PMQs of the year and the decade passed off in a rather bizarre and agreeable mood earlier today. Harriet Harman was in the driving seat for the government, as the PM is currently in Copenhagen for the climate change summit.

William Hague deputised for Cameron and failed to land any blows with his attacks on the Lizny arrest warrant, ineffective sanctions against Iran and the House rising early for Christmas. He also offered support for the climate change summit. Harman, whilst remaining in control also failed to impress today.

Vince Cable led with a question about tax evasion and asked for an ammendment to the Constitutional Reform Bill to ensure non-doms could not sit in parliament, citing Lord Ashcroft as an example. Harman agreed and said the government would bring forward legislation to deal with the issue. Overall an entirely forgettable session today.

This blog will return in the New Year, seasons greetings from PSA. 

Pre-Budget Report 2009

The PBR as expected read like a manifesto, in an attempt to exploit perceived Conservative weaknesses on the economy. As expected the Chancellor outlined a super tax on bankers’ bonuses, he also decided to freeze inheritance tax allowance at £325,000 for the next year and outlined measures against offshore accounts. 

Other headline measures included:

• The chancellor confirmed that VAT is going back up on 1 January to 17.5%, but says he has no other announcements on VAT. This may surprise some commentators who had suspected it could go up further.
• Confirmation too that the 1p rise in corporation tax is being postponed.
• From next month no-one under-24 needs to be unemployed for longer than 6 months before being guaranteed work
• Basic state pension to rise in April and a cut in Bingo Duty
• Child benefit and disability benefit to rise by 1.5% in April.
• Forecasts: Growth return this quarter. 2009/10 growth minus 4.75%. Next year 1.5%, 2011 on 3.5% i.e. not much change
• Chancellor revised provision for any potential impact from financial interventions on the public finances from £50bn to around £10bn
• Public Sector Net Borrowing - forecast next year £176bn which as a share of GDP will be 12%
• Inflation will rise to three per cent, the Chancellor predicts, partly because of the VAT reintroduction
• National Insurance to rise by a further 0.5% from April 2011 on incomes over £20k
  

Political reaction:

The shadow Chancellor - George Osbourne MP

"We were promised a pre-budget report and what we got was a pre-election report - they have lost all the moral authority to government today.

National insurance is a tax increase worth £40bn, he says, adding that Darling has confirmed that “all Labour governments bring the country to the verge of bankruptcy”.

He also accused Darling of "setting one part of country against another" and "turning his back" on enterprise.

Liberal Democrat  Economic Spokesperson – Vince Cable MP

He questioned the Chancellor’s assumption that Britain would return to growth in 2009.

"What we needed was a national economic plan and what we have got is an election manifesto." "The economy is now being rebuilt on sand. The only real sign of recovery we have are rising house prices and booming bank profits, at a time when industry is continuing to decline."

Pre-Budget Report Preview

Next week the Chancellor will set out his final Pre-Budget report before the next general election.

In it he will hope to define the Labour government as the only party that can ensure economic recovery, and drive a wedge of economic policy between Labour and the Conservatives.

The economic plan will need to ensure Britain’s economy is nurtured back into growth coupled reducing the public deficit will have to be cautiously balanced with ‘gifts’ to the electorate.

In what will no doubt be dubbed a bold PBR, we know this from leaks thus far:

• VAT will return to the 17.5% level
• Income tax and national insurance look set to be increased
• New ‘green’ taxes are expected
• Measures to ensure continued growth of low carbon sectors is certain

It will be interesting to see how many of the Chancellor’s measures are tabled for introduction before the General election.

Queen's Speech 2009

The General Election campaign kicked off today, with the Queen detailing the final legislative programme before the next general election.  Full summary below:

Financial Services Bill

• Strengthen and reform financial regulation, support better corporate governance, and protect and empower consumers;
• Ensure that the financial system that emerges from the crisis is one not only rebuilt on a stronger and sounder footing, but is also one that is fairer and works better for consumers.

Fiscal Responsibility Bill

• Put the Government's deficit reduction plan on a statutory footing, in order to half the deficit over 4 years and put debt on a sustainable path in the medium term.

Personal Care at Home Bill

• Help around 400,000 people with care needs;
• Offer for the first time free personal care at home for those with the highest needs, regardless of means;
• Be the first step towards setting up a new National Care Service - a simple, fair and affordable care system for everyone.

Children, Schools and Families Bill

• Provide guarantees for parents and pupils setting out what they can expect from a 21st century schools system. These will equip every child, every family and everyone who works with them to meet the challenges ahead, and so help secure this country's success now and in the future.

Crime and Security Bill

• The Bill would protect communities by making parents take responsibility for their child's antisocial behaviour. The Bill would also introduce new powers to help victims break the cycle of domestic violence.

Digital Economy Bill

• Strengthen the nation's communications infrastructures, equipping the UK to compete and lead in the global digital economy.

Energy Bill

• Provide support for energy consumers, giving a greater amount of help to the poorest and most vulnerable, as well as introducing a new financial incentive for carbon capture and storage demonstration projects.

Floods and Water Management Bill

• Provide better, more sustainable management of flood risk for people, homes and businesses, help safeguard community groups from unaffordable rises in surface water drainage charges and protect water supplies to the consumer.

Bribery Bill

• Provide a modern and comprehensive scheme of bribery offences to equip prosecutors and courts to deal effectively with bribery at home and abroad.

Cluster Munitions (Prohibition) Bill

• Create prohibitions on the use, production and transfer of cluster munitions in the UK and by UK nationals, and thereby implement the UK's international obligations under the Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM).

Draft Bills:
House of Lords Reform Bill

• Set out how the Government proposes to take forward the vote of the House of Commons in March 2007 in favour of a wholly or substantially elected second chamber.

International Development Spending Bill

• The Draft Bill would ensure that the Government spends 0.7 per cent of gross national income on Official Development Assistance from 2013.
  

Carry-Over Bills:
Equality Bill

• Set out groundbreaking new laws which will help narrow the gap between rich and poor; require businesses to report on gender pay; outlaw age discrimination; and will significantly strengthen Britain's anti-discrimination legislation.

Child Poverty Bill

• Enshrine in law the Government's commitment to end child poverty by 2020.

Constitutional Reform and Governance Bill

• Rebalance the relationship between Parliament, the Government and the public. It aims to rebuild trust in our democratic and constitutional settlement by reinforcing the principles of transparency, accountability and probity across government.