Has the General Election already been won?

With the general election expected within the next six months (most likely on May 6th), both parties were keen to steal the New Year limelight. The Tories were first to break out of political hibernation. Launching their draft health manifesto and their leader in a Presidential style, see poster below.

As has now been well reported, Labour responded with a dossier on Tory spending plans, in which they claimed to expose a £34 billion black hole. The battle has clearly begun. It looks like Labour has secured their first mini blow of this election saga, with the Tories appearing to back down on their marriage tax break proposal. 

However, is all this campaigning actually going to make a difference to the election result, I think not. There will be a Conservative Government running the country before mid-June, say most opinion polls and many political commentators. This suggests voters have already decided who they are going to vote for and thus the months of campaigning ahead will simply act as background noise.

That said, there are two important caveats to add: Firstly, whilst a Tory government is looking likely, anything is possible, as the overused Macmillan quote “events, dear boy event” reminds us. Secondly, Cameron still has some way to go in conveying what he and his party stand for, to attract floating voters, given the size of the swing required for a workable majority. For a majority of one the Tories must gain 117 seats, a swing not seen since 1931.