A week is a long time in the polls

Labour’s recent gain in the polls, with the previous five polls showing the gap between Labour and the Tories fluctuating between 7 and 9 points, illustrates just how tight the next general will be and is leading some commentators to the conclusion that there will be a hung parliament at the next general election.

Despite this, Cameron regained his confidence at PMQs this week, after a difficult month of policy wobbles, by panning Brown’s attempt to reform the electoral system, claiming that he had thirteen years to do so – he had a point. In what is being seen as a brazen attempt to court the Lib Dems and nurture the idea of a coalition ahead of the General Election, MPs will vote on AV replacing the first past the post system next week. With many Labour MPs already voicing disapproval, all eyes will be on the must win vote for Brown.

The PM has said he is very angry after it was announced that four MPs will face criminal charges (under section 17 of the Theft Act 1968 for false accounting) over their expenses claims; a further case is still under investigation. Elliot Chaytor, Jim Devine, David Chaytor and Lord Hanningfield are the accused, the three MPs released a joint statement this morning utterly refuting the charges brought against them. This is undoubtedly an embarrassment for Labour and it will be interesting to see how damaging this will be on their polling.

On the positive side, the historic breakthrough in Northern Ireland, may provide a boost for Labour. On top of that, rumours of Tony Blair hitting the campaign trail for Labour are actually true, in an interview with the Evening Standard, the PM said, “I think you will find Tony Blair has a role. I think you will find that many people in Labour who are no longer in Government but who have been part of the ‘project’ for years will have a role. Tony will have to explain, when he wishes, what he can do.” Also on the horizon for the PM is the broadcast of an one hour interview with Piers Morgan, this cosy interview should help maintain if not improve the recent gains.