Friday, 3 February 2012

Not too fast, Mr Huhne.

For many observers, Chris Huhne’s Cabinet exit has been bizarrely slow.
The most predicted Cabinet resignation since Clare Short flounced out in 2003 finally occurred today.  The LibDem MP for Eastleigh succumbed to months of pressure over an alleged offence for which he has now been charged.  The ex-DECC Secretary of State faces a Watergate-like charge relating to an alleged cover-up of a possible motoring offence.
At the point of charge, his exit was politically inevitable.  Yet Mr Huhne has been skating on the thin ice of a Cabinet departure for months.  Almost since the Coalition Government took office, Mr Huhne’s fingerprints have been detected on Cabinet leaks, anti-Conservative briefings and other political mischief-making.
From his over-the-top "Goebbels" jibes about the AV referendum to the immigration "cat flap", the former Minister seemed to take little notice of the doctrine of Cabinet collective responsibility.  His reputation for negative briefing even saw journalists making automatic assumptions – wrongly as it turned out – that he was behind the leaking of a letter proposing a new Royal Yacht.
If the Cabinet were populated by a single political party, Mr Huhne may have been spending more time with his family – or families – much earlier than today.  Now, regardless of the outcome of the judicial process, it seems likely that the ambitious MP’s life in the political fast lane has come to an abrupt, and terminal, conclusion.

Friday, 9 December 2011

Cameron’s premiership defined

Last night the Prime Minister decided enough was enough and vetoed a change to the Lisbon treaty. Britain will now stay outside of any new treaty agreement reached. (Initially alongside Hungary, Sweden and Czech Republic. A briefly held together European gang of four which quickly became one). The 26 other EU states will now to seek their own fiscal agreement involving deep integration around public spending and tax. 

While the finer details are yet to emerge there can be no doubt that this is the defining moment of David Cameron’s premiership. His coalition partners and the Labour party will be deeply unhappy. But how will it resonate with the public? And what exactly has the PM vetoed? At the moment it seems the PM has put Britain firmly outside the tent to borrow an analogy from Lyndon Johnson. 

How this decision reverberates will be crucial to the health of the Coalition. Our Polyglot DPM will be facing some difficult questions from the integrationists in his party over the coming days, weeks and years. He has already said he regrets the lack of a consensus deal and added, “as a lifelong pro-European, I will continue to argue within Government." 

The Labour Party’s initial reaction is to suggest that Cameron has put party before country and that this development is a sign of weakness not strength. They suggest that if the PM had decided to accept new Treaty changes the chances of getting it through Parliament would be almost impossible given the size of the recent Europe rebellion he faced. Ed Miliband claims he would have negotiated a better deal for Britain. At the moment it’s hard to see how without signing up to a new treaty. 

This remains a fluid situation and it is not easy to tell if the PM did the right thing but he has certainly taken a gamble. It will be difficult for the PM to claim "Game, set and match to Britain" for some time. What is clear is that the right wing of the Conservative party will be emboldened and the case for further withdrawal will be pressed hard. It would appear the biggest winners of this treaty rejection are the Euro-sceptics.

Tuesday, 29 November 2011

Autumn Statement 2011

The politics and economics of today’s Autumn Statement

A defining moment


Chancellor George Osborne’s Autumn Statement delivered today will prove to be a defining moment for the Coalition Government. Set against the backdrop of the continuing Eurozone crisis, the OECD warning that the UK is likely to slip back into recession, the Office of Budget Responsibility lowering its growth forecasts, borrowing set to rise and looming public sector strikes.

The Chancellor said the Government would “do whatever it takes” to protect Britain from the “debt storm”. As expected Mr Osborne identified growth as the number one priority for Government and announced a swathe of measures aimed at creating the right conditions to allow businesses to grow and said the Government would provide “leadership for tough times”.

The Chancellor decided to target tax credits and public sector pay today rather than the welfare system to fund new initiatives such as infrastructure spending. This is a political quandary for the government, whilst they can claim this a fairer method of saving money it is likely to give further credence to Labour’s “squeezed middle” mantra.

The war of words between the public sector trade unions and the Government looks set to continue for the foreseeable future and makes reaching an agreement on pensions even more difficult.

Cutting the deficit

Mr Osborne told the Commons that the Government is still on track to cut the deficit within the lifetime of this Parliament. Despite being helped by a reduction in debt repayment charges of £22bn to do this he will extend the public spending cuts beyond 2014-15, when they are scheduled to end.

The Office of Budget Responsibility says Growth this year will be 0.9%, next year it will fall to 0.7%. For 2013, 2014, 2015 the economy will grow by: 2.1%, 2.7%, 3% respectively.

National Infrastructure Plan

The Chancellor announced the publication of an infrastructure plan with £5bn worth of additional spending. Key announcements below:

· 500 new infrastructure projects will be funded over the next decade.

· 35 new road and rail schemes will be given the go-ahead today.

· a new urban broadband fund that will create up to ten ‘super-connected cities’ across the UK, with   superfast broadband, including Edinburgh, Belfast, Cardiff and London.

To drive forward the Government’s infrastructure programme, the Prime Minister has asked the Chief Secretary to the Treasury to chair a new Cabinet Committee on infrastructure. The Government will update on further progress delivering the priority programmes and projects before the end of 2012.

Key policies

Innovation

The Government will publish its Innovation and Research Strategy shortly to set out how it will support innovation in the UK.

The Government will invest an additional £75 million in supporting technology-based SMEs to develop, demonstrate and commercialise new products and services.

The Government will introduce an ‘above the line’ tax credit in 2013 to encourage research and development (R&D) activity by larger companies.

The Government will consult on the detail at Budget 2012 and will ensure that SME R&D incentives are not reduced as a result of this change. This builds on measures from the 2011 Budget to increase the generosity and accessibility of R&D tax credits for SMEs.

Following a consultation over the summer 2011, the Government will publish on 6 December 2011 further details of the Patent Box and of its reform of the Controlled Foreign Company rules and R&D tax credits.

The Government will launch a new Seed Enterprise Investment Scheme (SEIS) from April 2012, offering 50 per cent income tax relief on investments, and will offer a capital gains tax exemption on gains realised in 2012–13 and then invested through SEIS in the same year.

Education

The Government will invest £600 million to fund an estimated 100 additional Free Schools by the end of this Parliament. This will include new specialist maths Free Schools for 16-18 year olds.

The Government will invest an additional £600 million from 2012-13 to support those local authorities with the greatest demographic pressures.

Regional

The Government will increase the Regional Growth Fund for England by £1 billion, plus Barnett consequentials for the devolve administrations, and extend it into 2014-15 to provide ongoing support to grow the private sector in areas currently dependent on the public sector.

The Government announced 100 per cent capital allowances will be made available in the Black Country, Humber, Liverpool, North Eastern, Sheffield and Tees Valley Enterprise Zones.

Digital infrastructure

The Government announced a £20 million Rural Community Broadband Fund to help ensure more rural homes and businesses receive superfast broadband. If it is successful the Government will consider extending it.

The Statement headlines
  • These are the key points from today’s Autumn Statement: 
  • Working age benefits will be uprated in line with the Consumer Price Index's September level of 5.2%. 
  • The permanent bank levy will rise by 0.088%, which will ensure the Treasury raises the £2.5bn it needs. 
  • Public sector pay will rise by 1%, rather than 2%. 
  • A National Loan Guarantee Scheme worth £20bn for small and medium-sized business will be introduced over the next two years. 
  • Employment regulations will change to help businesses, including a change to TUPE regulations and cutting health and safety rules. 
  • Pension age to rise to 67 by 2028. 
  • The planned January fuel duty hike has been cancelled. The fuel duty rise for August will be limited to 3p. 
  • Free nursery places will be extended and an extra £1.2bn will be spent on new school places and 100 new free schools. 
  • Unemployed young people will be offered a Youth Contract. 
  • Business rate holiday for small firms will be extended until 2013. 

Tuesday, 11 October 2011

Olympic security – time to up the communications game

With the Olympics only months away, those faced with ensuring the games pass without incident are now faced with the enormity of a task which seemed so far off when London was awarded the games six years ago.
The Olympic Park
Inevitably costs have ballooned as the games have loomed closer. Two years ago the public purse was expecting to cough up around £280m to cover security costs; last year that had risen to £475m which is the current estimate of costs of police security outside of the venues (against a £600m ”cost envelope”).  A further £282m has been allocated to pay for security arrangements inside the venues. Earlier this year, the company with the contract to handle internal security said it would need to double the number of civilian security staff needed to screen visitors and train volunteers from ten to twenty thousand!

So by the time the games have finished it is likely that the total security costs for the 2012 Olympics will be around a cool £1bn. If these figures appear eye watering then it is worth remembering that no one will argue for security of this kind to be trimmed. Even the most ardent opponent of overbearing “elf and safety” rules will simply shrug and look for easier targets to criticise. And it’s not just us. Athens was awarded their games prior to 9/11. That fateful day in New York led to security costs for the 2004 games increasing from an estimated $122m to an actual outlay of $1.8bn – more than ten times the initial assumption.

Olympic security doesn’t just evolve around Stratford. It is estimated some 350,000 foreign visitors will attend the games each day. This will place unprecedented pressure on the UK Borders Agency, airlines and airport operators and the public transport infrastructure.

The communications challenge

So in an era of fiscal restraint and accountability how should the private security industry, airport operators’ and others communicate what they are doing with this public money? Certainly it is worth those security businesses explaining how they are ensuring the games can pass off peacefully and how value for money is being achieved.

Evidently politicians, media and the public are different audiences. With politicians it is possible to establish a clear narrative and a hierarchy of messaging on the most important facts. Ministers and others will want to be assured that the risk of an attack on the games – and other “lesser” acts of criminality such as illegal immigration – are minimal. Equally the politicians will want to know that taxpayer’s money is being spent efficiently (even if not parsimoniously).  Communicating direct with Members of Parliament and other political stakeholders on this should now be a priority.

Reassuring the public that everything is going to be ok is a different matter. The security industry is reliant upon the media to act as an intermediary to communicate key messages. Planning and timing is extremely important. It would be counterproductive to discuss security issues too far ahead of the games as this might suggest there is a reason to be concerned. Instead it is important to start to introduce the media to the issues so that at the right time those key messages on security are relayed loud and clear.

Finally there is the power of advertising.  Hundreds of millions of pounds will be spent on Olympics related advertising. Brands will use the Olympics formally as an official sponsor or in other creative ways to identify their product or service with the games. The security sector should consider itself very much part of that commercial process and use advertising to show how efficient it is at what it does.

Monday, 10 October 2011

The new shadow team in full

Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Labour Party
Rt Hon Ed Miliband MP
Shadow Deputy Prime Minister, Party Chair and Shadow Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport
Rt Hon Harriet Harman MP

Foreign and Commonwealth Office
Rt Hon Douglas Alexender MP
Rt Hon John Spellar MP
Emma Reynolds MP
Ian Lucas MP
Kerry McCarthy MP
Lord (David) Triesman
Treasury
Rt Hon Ed Balls MP
Rachel Reeves MP
Chris Leslie MP
Owen Smith MP
Cathy Jamieson MP
Lord (John) Eatwell
Rt Hon Lord (Bryan) Davies
Lord (Neil) Davidson
Justice
Rt Hon Sadiq Khan MP
Wayne David MP
Andy Slaughter MP
Rob Flello MP
Jenny Chapman MP
Lord (Willy) Bach
Home Office
Rt Hon Yvette Cooper MP
(also Shadow Minister for Women and Equalities)
Chris Bryant MP
Rt Hon David Hanson MP
Diana Johnson MP
Gloria de Piero MP
Stella Creasy MP
Rt Hon Lord (Philip) Hunt
Lord (Richard) Rosser
Defence
Rt Hon Jim Murphy MP
Kevan Jones MP
Russell Brown MP
Alison Seabeck MP
Gemma Doyle MP
Lord (Richard) Rosser
Business, Innovation & Skills
Chuka Umunna MP
Iain Wright MP
Shabana Mahmood MP
Gordon Marsden MP
Chi Onwurah MP
Toby Perkins MP
Ian Murray MP
Lord (Wilf) Stevenson
Lord (Tony) Young
Work & Pensions
Rt Hon Liam Byrne MP
Rt Hon Stephen Timms MP
Ian Austin MP
Anne McGuire MP
Gregg McClymont MP
Lord (Bill) McKenzie
Energy and Climate Change
Rt Hon Caroline Flint MP
Tom Greatrex MP
Luciana Berger MP
Rt Hon Baroness (Angela) Smith
Health
Rt Hon Andy Burnham MP
Liz Kendall MP
Diane Abbott MP
Andrew Gwynne MP
Jamie Reed MP
Baroness (Glenys) Thornton
Lord (Jeremy) Beecham
Education
Stephen Twigg MP
Kevin Brennan MP
Sharon Hodgson MP
Karen Buck MP
Catherine McKinnell MP
Baroness (Bev) Hughes
Baroness (Maggie) Jones
Communities and Local Government
Rt Hon Hilary Benn MP
Jack Dromey MP
Helen Jones MP
Roberta Blackman-Woods MP
Chris Williamson MP
Lord (Bill) McKenzie
Lord (Sir Jeremy) Beecham
Transport
Maria Eagle MP
Jim Fitzpatrick MP
Lilian Greenwood MP
John Woodcock MP
Rt Hon Lord (Bryan) Davies
Lord (Richard) Rosser
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Mary Creagh MP
Huw Irranca-Davies MP
Gavin Shuker MP
Fiona O'Donnell MP
Baroness (Joyce) Quin
Lord (Jim) Knight
International Development
Rt Hon Ivan Lewis MP
Tony Cunningham MP
Rushanara Ali MP
Baroness (Glenys) Kinnock
Minister for London and the Olympics
Rt Hon Tessa Jowell MP
Cabinet Office
Jon Trickett MP
Gareth Thomas MP
Michael Dugher MP
Lord (Stewart) Wood
Rt Hon Lord (Philip) Hunt of Kings Heath
Rt Hon Baroness (Jan) Royall
Equalities Office
Rt Hon Yvette Cooper MP
(also Shadow Home Secretary)
Kate Green MP
Rt Hon Baroness (Jan) Royall
Baroness (Glenys) Thornton
Culture, Olympics, Media & Sport
Rt Hon Harriet Harman MP
Clive Efford MP
Helen Goodman MP
Dan Jarvis MP
Baroness (Maggie) Jones
Baroness (Angela) Billingham
Lord (Wilf) Stevenson
Law Officers
Emily Thornberry MP
Lord (Neil) Davidson (Adv. Gen. Scotland)
Leader of the House of Commons
Angela Eagle MP
Angela Smith MP
Leader of the House of Lords
Rt Hon Baroness (Jan) Royall
Rt Hon Lord (Philip) Hunt (Deputy Leader)
Northern Ireland
Vernon Coaker MP
Stephen Pound MP
Rt Hon Baroness (Angela) Smith
Scotland
Margaret Curran MP
William Bain MP
Lord (Neil) Davidson
Lord (Des) Browne
Wales
Rt Hon Peter Hain MP
Nia Griffith MP
Rt Hon Lord (Bryan) Davies
House of Commons
Chief Whip

Rt Hon Rosie Winterton MP
Whips
Alan Campbell MP
Mark Tami MP (Pairing Whip)
Lyn Brown MP
David Hamilton MP
Phil Wilson MP
Mark Hendrick MP
Graham Jones MP
Chris Ruane MP
Susan Elan-Jones MP
Jon Ashworth MP
Tom Blenkinsop MP
Yvonne Fovargue MP
Nic Dakin MP
House of Lords
Chief Whip

Rt Hon Lord (Steve) Bassam of Brighton
Deputy Chief Whips
Lord (Denis) Tunnicliffe
Baroness (Christine) Crawley
Whips
Baroness (Maggie) Jones
Baroness (Anita) Gale
Lord (Richard) Rosser
Lord (John) Grantchester
Baroness (Margaret) Wheeler
Baroness (Dianne) Hayter
Lord (Roy) Kennedy
Lord (Ray) Collins
Lord (Roger) Liddle
Lord (Wilf) Stevenson
Lord (Tommy) McAvoy